Stock market dive might be good for the economy

first_imgSo far, so pessimistic.But the United States has a history of defying gloomy predictions.Economists predicted “secular stagnation” in the 1940s, right before the 1950s boom, and today there are signs that Fed estimates of R* are too cautious.Jason Cummins, the research chief at a major hedge fund and a candidate to lead the New York Fed, points out that capital expenditure is recovering; expectations of capital expenditure are soaring; and the personal saving rate has fallen back to its pre-crisis low.In Washington, the Trump tax cut means that the government saving rate is falling dramatically as well: We are back on the path to a trillion-dollar deficit.Meanwhile in Silicon Valley, some venture capitalists are shifting to capital-hungry projects — medical robotics, next-gen nuclear fusion, satellites and so on.Globally, healthy economies have dulled investors’ urge to park money in the United States because of its safe-haven status. All of which suggests that savings in the United States will be less abundant, demand for them will be more abundant, and the natural interest rate will move higher.Unless markets suddenly reverse themselves, the recent bondcano probably reflects an awakening.When investors revise up their view of interest rates, bond prices tumble.For many professional money managers, these may well be scalding times.But for the economy as a whole, a higher R* would be a sign that the post-2008 malaise is finally healing. Sebastian Mallaby, author of “The Man Who Knew: The Life & Times of Alan Greenspan,” is the Paul A. Volcker senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations and a contributing columnist for The Washington Post. More from The Daily Gazette:EDITORIAL: Urgent: Today is the last day to complete the censusEDITORIAL: Find a way to get family members into nursing homesFoss: Should main downtown branch of the Schenectady County Public Library reopen?EDITORIAL: Thruway tax unfair to working motoristsEDITORIAL: Beware of voter intimidation No matter how many jobs the economy created, many feared it would never return to the pre-crisis condition in which buoyant hiring could coexist with decent returns for savers. This pessimism has been most evident among Federal Reserve leaders.Members of the Fed’s monetary committee regularly publish their views of the appropriate long-run interest rate, known as “R*” in the jargon.This is the interest rate that the economy needs to achieve stable inflation and maximum employment.A high R* is generally good news: It means that businesses want to borrow and expand aggressively, so you can get to full employment even when interest rates are relatively high.Workers can do well even as savers do well.Think back two decades, when unemployment was low, wages were rising and savers enjoyed a risk-free 5.5 percent return on their money. Categories: Editorial, OpinionWall Street is always quick with colorful disaster metaphors, and the latest market convulsion has already been dubbed the “bondcano.” The bad news is that, in the judgment of Fed leaders, R* has come down sharply. Since 2012, the median estimate of the long-run interest rate published by monetary committee members has fallen from a bit over 4 percent to under 3 percent — this means that, stripping out inflation, the estimate for the real interest rate has collapsed by about two-thirds.Businesses seem unexcited about borrowing and investing, the Fed chiefs are saying. Interest rates will have to stay low to generate full employment.For anyone with a retirement fund, this is a grim prospect.The lower the return on savings, the more you have to set aside to afford retirement.For the past several years, admittedly, this truth has been obscured: Stocks have had a glorious run as low interest rates have chased savings into the markets.But that portfolio shift is probably over, and may well have overshot. From here on out, workers seeking to build up their retirement funds may have to save more and work longer.  But a little lava spillage can be a hopeful sign.LATEST: Wall Street ends day higher, halting global routFor the first time since the financial crisis of 2008, a strange cloud that has hung over the economy may finally be lifting.By most measures, the economy has performed well since 2008.The recovery has so far lasted for 103 months and will soon rank as the second-longest post-war expansion.GDP is up by 2.5 percent over the past year, not bad for a graying society; unemployment is at a rock-bottom 4.1 percent.But an uneasy feeling has haunted the celebration. How did the economy get stuck in this rut?The gloomy estimates of R* reflect a conviction that, even before the 2008 shock, powerful forces were pushing down on interest rates. The aging of the baby boomers boosted the saving rate.So did the rise in inequality — more of the national income was flowing to people who could afford to save it.The growing supply of capital was met with falling demand for capital, pushing down the natural interest rate further.Slowing productivity gains suggested that there were not that many great machines that businesses wanted to buy — hence sluggish business investment.Even the exciting breakthroughs in Silicon Valley were not capital-hungry.You can launch a ride-sharing company or a digital coin without buying much machinery. last_img read more

Bayern Munich cruise past Eintracht Frankfurt to stay on title track

first_imgRelatedPosts Club’s server collapses over ticket demand for first Bundesliga game in 11 years Bayern Munich fans undergo Super Cup coronavirus tests Vidal lands in Milan to complete move from Barca to Inter Bayern Munich beat Eintracht Frankfurt 5-2 on Saturday, surviving a brief second-half comeback scare.Victory helped the defending champions to stay four points clear of Borussia Dortmund at the top of the Bundesliga with seven games left to play. The Bavarians thought they had the match wrapped up after efforts from Leon Goretzka, Thomas Mueller and Robert Lewandowski had given them a 3-0 lead in the empty Allianz Arena.Eintracht Frankfurt defender Martin Hinteregger caught the Bayern defence napping to strike twice in three minutes and inject new life into the encounter.Yet, the visitors then quickly gave away two goals – with Alphonso Davies pouncing on a defensive error on the hour and Hinteregger scoring an own goal in the 74th minute.Bayern Munich are on 61 points with Borussia Dortmund, who host the Bavarians on Tuesday, on 57 following their 2-0 win over VfL Wolfsburg.The Bundesliga resumed last week, with no fans in attendance, after being suspended for more than two months due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Reuters/NAN.Tags: Bayern MunichBorussia DortmundBundesligaEintracht FrankfurtRobert Lewandowskilast_img read more

CNW90 August 7, 2020

first_imgTwo Broward Health community health centers are helping children prepare for the school year by offering free immunizations and low-cost physical exams. From July 27 to August 21, children between the ages of 4 and 18 who are uninsured, have Medicaid, or identify as American Indian or Alaska Native, will be able to get immunizations against infectious diseases such as whooping cough, measles, and others. The services will be available at the Braynon Family Health Center in Fort Lauderdale and Broward Health Pompano Pediatric Primary Care Center in Pompano Beach. In Sports News, West Indies cricket veteran Courtney Walsh has joined the St Kitts and Nevis Patriots coaching staff ahead of this month’s start of the CPL, after head coach Simon Helmot tested positive for COVID-19. Helmot, an Australian, said that he was preparing to travel to the Caribbean to assume duties for the tournament, when he obtained the unexpected results. He said he received the results five hours before he was scheduled to depart to Trinidad. Other players and officials began arriving in Trinidad on Monday for the tournament which will run from August 18 to September 10. All persons that will arrive will be quarantined for two weeks and all games will be played without fans in attendance. Now for Caribbean News, The Grenada police have sent a warning to residents that they are fully prepared to enforce the laws in relation to the cancellation of all Carnival-type activities during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The police said that they have observed that many residents have insisted on participating in Carnival activities even though the August 10-11 Spicemas celebrations have been cancelled. They police said all carnival activities are illegal at this time and those caught partying will face consequences. Grenada, which has so far recorded 24 confirmed tests of the virus, is not the only Caribbean country to have postponed their annual carnival celebrations. Antigua, St. Vincent, St. Lucia and Barbados all cancelled their respective celebrations. Jamaica, on the other hand, is still going ahead with carnival plans for October. Coming up in the newscast, Broward health announces free immunizations and exams for uninsured children, Lauderdale Lakes Mayor Hazelle Rogers among the Jamaicans to receive national awards and Grenada’s police warns against those who insist on celebrating carnival. You’ve been watching CNW90, I’m… To help stop the spread of COVID-19, The Florida Department of Health in Broward County reminds everyone to practice social distancing, wash your hands often with soap and water and cover your nose and mouth with a tissue or sleeve when coughing or sneezing. Also In Local News, several Jamaican-Americans were among those named on the list of awardees for this year’s Jamaican National Honors and Awards. The list, which was announced yesterday on Jamaica’s Independence Day, highlights Jamaicans at home and abroad that have been recognized for their contributions to the country in various areas. Pioneer Jamaican American politician Hazelle Rogers, the Mayor of the City of Lauderdale Lakes, is set to receive the order of distinction, the sixth-highest award, for her years of service in the Jamaican diaspora. Other diaspora members receiving the order of distinction are Third World drummer Willie Stewart, former member of the Byron Lee and the Dragonaires band, Keith Lyn, Cedella Marley, Scientist Godfrey Palmer and Khadija “Bunny” Shaw, a member of the Reggae Girlz team and Jamaica’s all-time leading football scorer. Renowned professor at Harvard University, Orlando Patterson, will receive the highest honor this year- the Order of Merit, for his contributions to international academia. The awards will take place on October 19, Jamaica’s National Heroes Day. With a look at some of the top stories making the news today, August 7 across your Caribbean-American community in South Florida, I’m…for CNW 90. Today’s newscast is brought to you by the Florida Department of Health; For more information on these and other stories, visit CNWNETWORK.com. Remember to pick up this week’s copy of our Caribbean National Weekly at your nearest Caribbean – American outlet. Now for the news in the detaillast_img read more

Goals rain on league resumption but SC Villa shoots blanks

first_imgThe Jogoos started with prodigal son, Emmanuel Okwi upfront but struggled to convert the few chances created against a well organised Fred Kajoba coached side on a sunny afternoon.At Lugogo, champions KCCA started off from where they left with a deserving 2-0 win over struggling Bul FC.Geoffrey Sserunkuma opened the scores with his 10th goal of the season as early as three minutes while Muzamiru Mutyaba added the second in the 67th minute with a wonderful strike.In Lugazi, URA threw away a two goal lead in a 2-2 thrilling draw with JMC Hippos.At Namboole, Tony Odur and Deus Bukenya scored to give former league winners Vipers a 2-0 win over Lweza and the bragging rights in the Entebbe Road derby.Elsewhere, at Nakivubo, Hood Kawesa and William Wadri scored in the first half to give Abdallah Mubiru a winning debut at Police as they deservingly beat visitors Sadolin Paints to move four points clear of the relegation monster with 17 points in 12th and now tie with Painters who are 11th.At Mutesa II stadium, Wankulukuku, new team captain Ibrahim Saddam Juma scored on his debut as Express captain but Godfrey Wakaza replied with an equaliser to deny Matia Lule’s side maximum points.Action continues on Wednesday at Phillip Omondi stadium, Lugogo when Onduparaka pay a visit to Proline.****editor@independent.co.ugShare on: WhatsApp Odur scored for Vipers. PHOTO UPL MEDIATuesday ResultsBright Stars 0-0 SC VillaKCCA 2-0 BulExpress 1-1 The SaintsVipers 2-0 LwezaPolice 2-0 Sadolin PaintsURA 2-2 JMC HipposKirinya Jinja SS 1-1 SoanaWednesdayProline Vs Onduparaka – Lugogo  4pmUPL: Fourteen goals were scored on the first day as the second round of the league resumed with only one match failing to produce a goal. (click for FULL UGANDA FOOTBALL STORY)That was in Champions stadium, Mwererwe where 16-time champions SC Villa fired blanks against hosts Bright Stars.last_img read more

Bekele breaks Farah’s London half-marathon record

first_img“I’m on schedule in my preparation for the London Marathon in April.“There’s no question about the crowds in London being great. They were cheering all around the course and it felt like a great place to be.”Farah decided to concentrate on the marathon having won gold in the 5,000 metres and 10,000 metres at both the London and Rio Games, but a relative lack of success on the road has seen him turn his attention back to the track ahead of this year’s Olympics in Tokyo.jdg/lpShare on: WhatsApp Bekele is backLondon, United Kingdom | AFP |  Ethiopia’s Kenenisa Bekele broke Mo Farah’s course record as he won the London half-marathon on Sunday in a time of one hour and 22 seconds.Bekele took 1min 18sec off the record set in 2019 by British distance great Farah, who missed this year’s edition with an achilles injury.Britain’s Christopher Thompson finished second, with Jake Smith third.Sunday’s event served as a warm-up event for the full London Marathon on April 26. That race is set to see Bekele go up against Eliud Kipchoge, the reigning Olympic champion from Kenya, as the two fastest marathon runners of all time meet in the British capital.“The new course record is a great bonus. I wasn’t focused on time today, I just wanted to win,” Bekele, three times an Olympic gold medallist on the track, told the BBC.last_img read more

High School Transition Resource Fair For Young Adults With Developmental Disabilities

first_imgTuesday, March 6, 20124:00 – 7:00 p.m.Labor & Industries Building7273 Linderson WayTumwater, WashingtonRefreshments will be served and the Fair is free and open to the public. Interpreter services and other special accommodations available by advanced request. For more information, contact Anne Butigan at 360-867-2520. Facebook2Tweet0Pin0OLYMPIA — Local, private, county and state organizations will come together for the Annual High School Transition Resource Fair for parents and young adults with special needs.The Resource Fair will provide parents and young adults with information regarding a wide range of services available in our community. While the event is aimed at providing information to parents and teens and young adults with developmental disabilities who will be graduating from high school within the next few years, any family with a child with special needs is welcome to attend.Representatives from approximately 25 organizations will be at the Fair to present information about available resources and there will be two breakout sessions, “Family Preparation for Adult Services:  An Overview & Timeline,” and “A School-to-Work Success Story.”The Resource Fair will be held:last_img read more