Stock market dive might be good for the economy

first_imgSo far, so pessimistic.But the United States has a history of defying gloomy predictions.Economists predicted “secular stagnation” in the 1940s, right before the 1950s boom, and today there are signs that Fed estimates of R* are too cautious.Jason Cummins, the research chief at a major hedge fund and a candidate to lead the New York Fed, points out that capital expenditure is recovering; expectations of capital expenditure are soaring; and the personal saving rate has fallen back to its pre-crisis low.In Washington, the Trump tax cut means that the government saving rate is falling dramatically as well: We are back on the path to a trillion-dollar deficit.Meanwhile in Silicon Valley, some venture capitalists are shifting to capital-hungry projects — medical robotics, next-gen nuclear fusion, satellites and so on.Globally, healthy economies have dulled investors’ urge to park money in the United States because of its safe-haven status. All of which suggests that savings in the United States will be less abundant, demand for them will be more abundant, and the natural interest rate will move higher.Unless markets suddenly reverse themselves, the recent bondcano probably reflects an awakening.When investors revise up their view of interest rates, bond prices tumble.For many professional money managers, these may well be scalding times.But for the economy as a whole, a higher R* would be a sign that the post-2008 malaise is finally healing. Sebastian Mallaby, author of “The Man Who Knew: The Life & Times of Alan Greenspan,” is the Paul A. Volcker senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations and a contributing columnist for The Washington Post. More from The Daily Gazette:EDITORIAL: Urgent: Today is the last day to complete the censusEDITORIAL: Find a way to get family members into nursing homesFoss: Should main downtown branch of the Schenectady County Public Library reopen?EDITORIAL: Thruway tax unfair to working motoristsEDITORIAL: Beware of voter intimidation No matter how many jobs the economy created, many feared it would never return to the pre-crisis condition in which buoyant hiring could coexist with decent returns for savers. This pessimism has been most evident among Federal Reserve leaders.Members of the Fed’s monetary committee regularly publish their views of the appropriate long-run interest rate, known as “R*” in the jargon.This is the interest rate that the economy needs to achieve stable inflation and maximum employment.A high R* is generally good news: It means that businesses want to borrow and expand aggressively, so you can get to full employment even when interest rates are relatively high.Workers can do well even as savers do well.Think back two decades, when unemployment was low, wages were rising and savers enjoyed a risk-free 5.5 percent return on their money. Categories: Editorial, OpinionWall Street is always quick with colorful disaster metaphors, and the latest market convulsion has already been dubbed the “bondcano.” The bad news is that, in the judgment of Fed leaders, R* has come down sharply. Since 2012, the median estimate of the long-run interest rate published by monetary committee members has fallen from a bit over 4 percent to under 3 percent — this means that, stripping out inflation, the estimate for the real interest rate has collapsed by about two-thirds.Businesses seem unexcited about borrowing and investing, the Fed chiefs are saying. Interest rates will have to stay low to generate full employment.For anyone with a retirement fund, this is a grim prospect.The lower the return on savings, the more you have to set aside to afford retirement.For the past several years, admittedly, this truth has been obscured: Stocks have had a glorious run as low interest rates have chased savings into the markets.But that portfolio shift is probably over, and may well have overshot. From here on out, workers seeking to build up their retirement funds may have to save more and work longer.  But a little lava spillage can be a hopeful sign.LATEST: Wall Street ends day higher, halting global routFor the first time since the financial crisis of 2008, a strange cloud that has hung over the economy may finally be lifting.By most measures, the economy has performed well since 2008.The recovery has so far lasted for 103 months and will soon rank as the second-longest post-war expansion.GDP is up by 2.5 percent over the past year, not bad for a graying society; unemployment is at a rock-bottom 4.1 percent.But an uneasy feeling has haunted the celebration. How did the economy get stuck in this rut?The gloomy estimates of R* reflect a conviction that, even before the 2008 shock, powerful forces were pushing down on interest rates. The aging of the baby boomers boosted the saving rate.So did the rise in inequality — more of the national income was flowing to people who could afford to save it.The growing supply of capital was met with falling demand for capital, pushing down the natural interest rate further.Slowing productivity gains suggested that there were not that many great machines that businesses wanted to buy — hence sluggish business investment.Even the exciting breakthroughs in Silicon Valley were not capital-hungry.You can launch a ride-sharing company or a digital coin without buying much machinery. last_img read more

PREMIUM75 years later, with Indonesia’s oil industry in decay, options are wide open

first_imgTopics : Facebook Google Log in with your social account LOG INDon’t have an account? Register here Linkedin Forgot Password ? “Documenting 75 years of resilience” is a series of special reports by The Jakarta Post to celebrate Indonesia’s Independence Day, August 17, 1945.The oil industry was once Indonesia’s growth engine, but conditions quickly went downhill starting in the late 1990s, as domestic production declined but consumption kept rising.By around 2000, Indonesia’s domestic oil consumption had exceeded refining capacity, and by 2004, consumption had exceeded production, BP Statistical Review data show.The country began importing crude oil and fuel, straining its trade balance, to meet domestic oil demand. Having become a net oil importer, Indonesia left the powerful Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 2009.Meanwhile, state-owned oil giant Pertamina, the government’s cash cow during the industry’s golden years, is now operating… energy-and-mineral-resources-ministry oil-production OPEC oil-importer oil-and-gas #Indonesia75 pertaminalast_img read more

Health professional suggests re-examination of the nurses’ recruitment process

first_img Sharing is caring! Tweet 29 Views   no discussions Share Sharecenter_img Share LocalNews Health professional suggests re-examination of the nurses’ recruitment process by: – May 17, 2012 Stethoscope. Photo credit: etftrends.comRecruiters of nurses on the island have been asked to re-examine the recruitment process so as to attract the best people into the nursing profession.Former Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Health Jean Jacob told a recent panel discussion organized by the Dominica Nurses Association that attracting and recruiting the best people into nursing is important to maintain and drive forward high-quality healthcare services in Dominica.“You are not going to put that individual behind a desk. You are going to put that individual to care for people, to understand people… so it’s not just anybody wash foot and come”.There has been concern about the attitudes of some Dominican nurses towards the profession and efforts have been made at a national level to train nurses in customer relations. While Jacob is applauding these efforts she offers this advice.“I think as trainers as a learning institution we have to examine what we do, how we recruit nurses into the profession. I know there is a pre-nursing programme, what is it supposed to do? Is it only to determine academics? Do we look at behaviours, do we look at attitudes during that period to determine whether these are people who should be in the profession”?Jacob is suggesting that proper standards be set in order to identify early weaknesses in prospective nurses.“There has to be some kind of process to examine the people who come into the profession. We have to look at recruitment and what type of behaviours should be tolerated in the profession at a very early stage. I think when we take in students into the profession and then we complain after then it’s after the fact”. The Former Permanent secretary in the Ministry of Health is also suggesting that a cadre of professionals be identified to assist in the development of Dominica’s nursing service. Jacob believes it’s important that young nurses know who the trailblazers in the profession were.“As a nursing profession what are we doing to keep our profession visible utilizing the present and the past is also important .I would like the nurses association to consider getting the retired nurses who worked in the community to have a dialogue with the younger nurses to share their experiences and difficulties in the profession”.By: Tarnia GreenGovernment Information Servicelast_img read more

Pellegrini: Hart is working hard

first_img Pellegrini stressed he wants Milner to stay at the Etihad Stadium but he admitted the final decision rests with the player himself. “It’s a decision James must take at the end of season, what is better for his future,” Pellegrini said. “I always talk that he is an important player for our team, he can play in different positions because he is an intelligent player. “He always gives 100 per cent but it will be sorted at the end of the season. “I can think (staying at Manchester City) is best him for him but it’s important what he thinks.” Asked if he wanted to keep Milner, Pellegrini replied: “Yes, of course. He is a very important player for us.” Swansea’s defeat ended their hopes of qualifying for the Europa League as Garry Monk’s men will now definitely finish eighth. But manager Monk said missing out on Europe should take nothing away from a campaign which has seen Swansea record their highest-ever Premier League finish and their greatest points tally. “I think we’ve shown quite clearly with the run of form we’ve been on that we wanted to get into Europe,” Monk said. “We pushed all the way to try to get there and it would have been a great reward for the season we’ve had. “But hopefully now we have a chance to recruit properly and try to surpass what we have done this year in the Premier League, although we know it will be tough.” Swansea were criticised by Arsene Wenger for what the Arsenal manager perceived as negative tactics in the Welsh club’s 1-0 smash-and-grab victory at the Emirates Stadium. But Monk said the performance showed that Swansea could take on the best in an attacking contest. “We got criticised last Monday for apparently not playing football, and I wanted the players to show we can go toe-to-toe with one of the top sides when we choose to,” Monk said. “I think we proved we can do that. Yes we lost the game, but if we had taken one or two chances, or Joe Hart had not made some incredible saves, we could have got something from the game. “We didn’t quite get a result, but I think we have shown what a strong group we’ve got and hopefully next season we can be even better.” Manchester City manager Manuel Pellegrini insisted Joe Hart must keep improving if he is to become the best goalkeeper in the world. “It was a beautiful save in a very important moment,” Pellegrini said after his side had tightened their grip on second spot with a fifth consecutive league victory. “Joe is the number one goalkeeper in England and I think he has improved a lot this season. “Bringing Willy Caballero was good for him, giving him good competition and also working with the goalkeeping coach Xabier Mancisidor. “It’s important for him but he most important thing is he has an open mind. “He is only 28 years old and he must improve in a lot of things, but he is working hard to do it. “It is difficult for a young goalkeeper to be so good at the start of his career and it is difficult to compare him with all the other goalkeepers here. “There are three or four good goalkeepers in this league, but Joe must improve and not think he knows every thing at this moment. Every day he works hard.” James Milner scored City’s second goal and gave another performance full of endeavour and commitment, even though he is out of contract at the end of the season and he may move on this summer. Hart produced possibly the save of the season in City’s 4-2 Barclays Premier League win at Swansea, his flying one-handed stop preventing Federico Fernandez’s 82nd-minute header from making it 3-3. The England goalkeeper made another point-blank save from Bafetimbi Gomis two minutes later before Swansea old boy Wilfried Bony, on as a late substitute, settled matters in injury time with only his second City goal. Press Associationlast_img read more

Eagles Drop to 70th Spot in FIFA Ranking

first_imgNigeria once a powerhouse in African football topped the continent and ranked 5th when the ranking system was introduced prior to the World Cup in 1994.Elephants of Cote d’ Ivoire are second in Africa and 35th in the world while Ghana’s Black Stars are rated third best in Africa and 36th in the world.The Teranga Lions of Senegal are fourth and 41st in the world.Other better rated African countries include; Egypt, Tunisia, Cameroun, Morocco, Congo DR, Mali, Cape Verde Island, Guinea and South Africa in the 5th to 13th positions respectively.The other countries that occupied the 14th, 15th and 16th positions are Benin Republic, Uganda and Congo.Argentina remains at the summit of the July FIFA world ranking but only after a tumultuous month of action that resulted in plenty of movement further down.Belgium occupies the number two spot and Colombia, Germany, Chile and Euro 2016 champions, Portugal taking the number three to six positions.The Euro 2016 runners-up, France, Spain, Brazil and Italy make up the top 10 spots in the world.A total of 228 ‘A’ internationals contributed to the new order with those big events in Oceania, Europe and the Americas especially important in propelling nations upwards.New Zealand emerged as the month’s biggest climbers moving up a whopping 54 places to 93rd on the back of an OFC Nations Cup victory that both qualified the All Whites for the 2017 FIFA Confederations Cup and furthered their FIFA World Cup qualifying ambitions.The next FIFA world ranking will be published on Thursday, August 11, 2016.AFRICA’S TOP 10AlgeriaCote d’IvoireGhanaSenegalEgyptTunisiaCamerounMoroccoCongo DRMaliShare this:FacebookRedditTwitterPrintPinterestEmailWhatsAppSkypeLinkedInTumblrPocketTelegram Femi SolajaSuper Eagles free fall in global football ranking continued on Tuesday in the July FIFA rankings as Nigeria plunged to 70th position from the 61st it occupied last month. Eagles equally slipped from the 12th spot of June to 17th in Africa.While the poor form continued for Eagles, Nigeria’s major foe in the 2018 World Cup qualifier, the Desert Foxes of Algeria maintained their number one spot at the top of African football.last_img read more

Beat writers predict Syracuse to get back on track against Colgate

first_img Comments Facebook Twitter Google+ Published on November 20, 2018 at 10:29 pmcenter_img Syracuse (2-2) enters its meeting with Colgate (4-1) coming off two losses at Madison Square Garden. The Raiders have won four in a row, including on Monday night against Binghamton. SU and Colgate will be meeting for the 171st time in their histories, making it the most-frequent matchup in Syracuse history. The Orange have won the last 52.Here’s what our beat writers think will happen on Wednesday night in the Carrier Dome.Charlie DiSturco (3-1)Don’t panicSyracuse 67, Colgate 56Originally, this game seemed to be an easy win in between a tough Madison Square Garden trip and a road game at Ohio State, who’s now in the Top 25, the following week. But now, this comes in the middle of a crisis where Syracuse is searching for its identity and struggling both offensively and defensively. This is the perfect game, however, for the Orange to get back on track — and who knows, Frank Howard may make his season debut on Wednesday. It may not be a pretty win, but it’ll be one for the Orange nonetheless. Billy Heyen (3-1)Feeling 22Syracuse 75, Colgate 60AdvertisementThis is placeholder textSyracuse needs to find a way to get its offense and defense going. Against Colgate, the Orange should at least solve some offensive woes, as size and talent advantages exist all over the floor. I’ll be covering the game on my 22nd birthday, and if Syracuse doesn’t have a player score 22 points, that spells worry for the Orange. But regardless, as long as SU prevents the Raiders from making an obscene number of 3s, this should be a relatively easy move back into the win column for the Orange.Matthew Gutierrez (2-2)Back on track — somewhatSyracuse 68, Colgate 58This feels as though Colgate will hang around at halftime, maybe make the game close until midway through the second half. What we’ll learn most from this game is how much the rest and practice time benefited Syracuse. Maybe it didn’t. Either way, SU gets a week off before traveling to Ohio State, so whether SU benefited from several practices will show Wednesday night. The outcome will inform our thoughts on the kind of game next week in Columbus will be. Also: I wish all of our readers a happy and healthy Thanksgiving. last_img read more

Bennett tipped for big year in 2016

first_imgL’Equipe has riders in various categories including Grand Tour riders, climbers and classic riders.Andre Greipel, Alexander Kristoff and Mark Cavendish were recognised as the best sprinters of 2015 – however Bora Argon 18 fast-man Bennett was singled out as one who will soon be playing in the big leagues.The 25 year old has notched up stage wins in the Tour of Qatar, Bayern Rundfahrt, the Arctic Race of Norway and the one day Paris-Bourges in his second season with the German team.last_img read more

Chicago’s Pau Gasol to square off against Lakers with mixed emotions

first_img Newsroom GuidelinesNews TipsContact UsReport an Error Gasol predicted he will not feel as overwhelmed as when the Bulls play the Lakers on Jan. 29 at Staples Center. Then, Gasol will likely receive a positive reception for his 6½ seasons with the Lakers after the franchise acquired him in February of 2008 in a trade with the Memphis Grizzlies. As Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak told the Los Angeles News Group as he walked down a Staples Center hallway, “We’ve been to the Finals three times and there’s two banners in this building that we would not have if it wasn’t for Pau Gasol.” With Gasol’s 18 points and 11.5 rebounds per-game average this season marking a highers statistical output than in any of his last three years with the Lakers, Gasol will likely live up to his promise of playing well against his former team.Yet it still strikes Gasol five months later how difficult it became for him to leave the Lakers. It seems ironic considering the Lakers’ unsuccessful attempts to trade Gasol, including when former NBA Commissioner David Stern nixed the Chris Paul deal in December of 2011 that would have sent Gasol to the Houston Rockets. “They made it really hard because of all the strong relationships and feelings and emotions that I have with many people in the franchise and the city,” Gasol said. “It was hard to put those emotions aside and make the most cerebral decision.” The hardest part entailed informing Kobe Bryant in what Gasol called an “open hearted” and “very honest” conversation. Gasol’s versatile post presence and amenable personality had complemented Bryant’s high-volume scoring and demanding leadership style. Bryant also publicly supported Gasol amid trade rumors and fluctuating roles. “We’re friends. We have a special bond,” Gasol said of Bryant. “He wanted me to stay, continue to fight and overcome the situation that was put in front of us. A big part of me wanted to do that as well.”Gasol decided otherwise. He entertained offers from the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, New York Knicks and what he called “many other options” that he kept unpublished. Meanwhile, the Lakers finished last season with a 27-55 record with their worst season in L.A. franchise history. The Lakers only had Bryant, Steve Nash and Robert Sacre under guaranteed contracts for the 2014-15 season. Considering their disagreements over his offensive system, Mike D’Antoni’s resignation softened Gasol’s reservations about inking his future with a purple-and-gold pen. But the Lakers kept their head-coaching vacancy open until hiring Byron Scott in late July. “That tells me there’s going to be a process of learning and adjusting to newer things,” Gasol said. “That’s not exactly the combination to win right away and to have certain security.”Gasol rarely enjoyed that luxury for the past three seasons. He became linked in trade discussions both real and imagined. To ease those concerns, Gasol said the Lakers offered a no-trade clause. They also offered deals worth $29 million over three years and $23 million over two years. The Lakers believed Gasol would stay if they had landed LeBron James and/or Carmelo Anthony.“We did the best we could to keep him,” Kupchak said of Gasol. “He looked at his options and decided to go to another place that he felt was best for him.” Gasol signed with the Bulls for three years at over $22 million.“I took a big pay cut to leave,” Gasol said. “But my main priority was to put myself in a position to win another championship right away.”The 34-year-old Gasol believes the Bulls best fit that criteria. He described his teammates as “high-quality players” and “very unselfish,” including speedy point guard Derrick Rose and a deep frontcourt featuring Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson.Gasol attributes part of his enhanced production to improved health after missing a combined 55 games the last two seasons because of knee tendinosis, plantar fascia in his left foot and vertigo. “I feel very comfortable here in being the best I can be,” Gasol said. “I feel rejuvenated.”After disagreeing with former Lakers coaches Mike Brown and D’Antoni over his role, Gasol has provided a post presence he once enjoyed under Phil Jackson. Even with conceding it has been a “learning process” in adjusting to the demanding practices under Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau, Gasol said he “appreciates what he brings to the table.”“He takes his job seriously,” Gasol said of Thibodeau. “He’s a very methodical coach, works extremely hard and is extremely devoted to the team.”Gasol also shows devotion to philanthropic projects both old and new. Gasol has maintained relationships with Children’s Hospital Los Angeles and My Safe L.A, an initiative sponsored by the Los Angeles Fire Department that addresses fire safety issues. Gasol has also visited Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children’s Hospital in Chicago. Gasol also cannot resist monitoring the Lakers.“It’s hard for me to see the Lakers struggle,” Gasol said. “But I like to keep an eye on my team, I mean my former team, and people I care about deeply.”That includes Bryant, who recently surpassed Michael Jordan for third place on the NBA’s all-time scoring list. The 36-year-old Bryant has also averaged 24.6 points, albeit on a career-low 37.2 percent shooting in his 19th NBA season after playing in only six games last season because of injuries to his left Achilles tendon and left knee. “He stands out as one of the greatest ever,” Gasol said of Bryant. “I’m very proud of his accomplishments and how he continues to perform and handle himself as a unique player and unique human being.”So unique that Gasol takes a balanced approach in providing perspective on Bryant to his new teammates. Gasol also said Rose’s recent injuries to both knees, his left hamstring and right ankle involve different circumstances than Bryant’s ailments.“People have an understanding with what Kobe’s about and his toughness. But he’s one of a kind,” Gasol said. “There’s only so many players that can relate to him. I just try to share things about his drive, competitiveness and leadership and how tough he is to my teammates.” The Bulls will see first-hand once Bryant steps on the court. Then, Gasol will embrace the Lakers’ star. That will then open up emotions that will leave Gasol appreciative of the Lakers’ past he once lived and the Bulls’ present he currently enjoys. center_img The enthusiasm in Pau Gasol’s voice rose as he gushed about a season finally free of any trade discussions, fluctuating roles or health issues. He also sounded at peace But despite relishing his time with the Chicago Bulls since leaving the Lakers this offseason as a free agent, Gasol sensed another wave of anxiety.When the Lakers (9-19) visit the Chicago Bulls (19-9) on Thursday at United Center, Gasol will attach plenty of sentiments to a Christmas Day matchup that symbolizes his past and present colliding. “It’ll be emotional,” Gasol said in an interview with the Los Angeles News Group. “So I can’t be distracted. I just have to play well.” last_img read more

Karen Sue (McLain) Liebegott, Belle Plaine: Feb. 21, 1953 – July 12, 2013

first_imgKaren LiebegottKaren Sue (McLain) Liebegott, of Belle Plaine, has passed on to her next adventure after living a very fulfilling life here with her family and friends on Friday, July 12, 2013 in Wichita at the age of 60.Karen was born the daughter of Vera and Orpha McLain on February 21, 1953 in Berwyn, Illinois.On January 21, 1976, Karen and George C. Liebegott were united in marriage in Las Vegas, Nevada. Together they celebrated 37 years of marriage.Karen graduated from nursing school in 1976 while in Las Vegas, Nevada and she worked at Clifton Medical Center in Wichita for a number of years.She wishes to thank all her family and friends for the love and support they have provided her, and hope they find the same joy in life that she found.Survivors include husband, George Liebegott of Belle Plaine, sons, Jeff Liebegott of Hillsboro and Jason Liebegott of Wichita, Kanas, daughter, Tracy Braun and her husband Bill of Savannah, Georgia, grandchildren, Kristen Bunner of Vienna, West Virginia, Shane Bunner of Savannah, Georgia, Hanna Liebegott, Andrew Liebegott and Hunter Welch all of Lawrence, step-granddaughter Kate Braun of Savannah, Georgia and great-granddaughter Addison Braun of Savannah, Georgia.She was preceded in death by her parents and one brother Brad McLain.Visitation will be held at the Day Funeral Home from 1 p.m. to 8 p.m., Monday, July 15, 2013 with the family present from 6 p.m. to 8 p.m.Funeral services for Karen will be at 10:30 a.m., Tuesday, July 16, 2013 in the chapel of Day Funeral Home & Crematory, 1030 Mission Road Wellington.Memorials have been established in her loving memory with Victory in the Valley 3755 East Douglas Ave. Wichita 67218. Contributions can be mailed or left with the funeral home.To share a memory or leave condolences, please visit are by Day Funeral Home & Crematory, Wellington.last_img read more

Shaquille O’Neal reflects on Kobe Bryant’s death: ‘He was so much more than an athlete’

first_imgMORE: The 5 best moments from Kobe and Shaq’s TNT interview”There’s no words to express the pain I’m going through with this tragedy of losing my niece Gigi and my brother Kobe. I love you and you will be missed. My condolences goes out to the Bryant family and the families of the other passengers on board. I’m sick right now,” O’Neal wrote on Twitter. “Kobe was so much more than an athlete, he was a family man. That was what we had most in common. I would hug his children like they were my own and he would embrace my kids like they were his. His baby girl Gigi was born on the same day as my youngest daughter Me’Arah.”O’Neal and Bryant’s relationship had some tenuous moments as teammates, but they reconciled in their post-NBA careers. After Bryant’s final game in 2016, O’Neal called Bryant “the greatest Laker ever.” Shaquille O’Neal said there were “no words” that could describe the tragedy and the pain he felt after learning about Kobe Bryant’s death.O’Neal joined the Lakers in 1996, the same year the franchise drafted Bryant. The two were teammates until 2004 when O’Neal was traded to the Miami Heat following a dispute with the team. In their time together, the pair won three NBA Championships.last_img read more